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Lesson 7 of 9 Β· 8 min read

Reading Run History & Analytics

The equity curve shows the shape, drawdown shows the pain, Sharpe shows the smoothness, and the trade ledger shows the truth. Learn to read all four together, not the headline return alone.

Reading Run History & Analytics

Every run lands in Run History with a panel of analytics. The headline return is the least useful number on it. The honest read combines four views, each answering a different question about whether you could actually live with this strategy.

The equity curve β€” shape

The Equity curve plots account Equity over the run. Read its shape, not just its endpoint: a steady upward slope is worth far more than the same return delivered in two violent spikes around long flat stretches. A curve that climbs only in one market regime is telling you the strategy works in one regime.

Drawdown β€” pain

The Drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline in equity. It is the number that decides whether you can actually stick with the strategy when it is losing. A backtest with a 60% max drawdown will be abandoned by a real human at the bottom β€” which means its lovely final return is fiction for you specifically.

Sharpe β€” smoothness

The Sharpe ratio is return divided by the volatility of those returns. It rewards consistency: a strategy making 12% smoothly can out-score one making 20% in lurches. Watch how Sharpe behaves across walk-forward windows β€” a Sharpe that is high in-sample and collapses out-of-sample is the signature of Overfitting.

The trade ledger β€” truth

The Trade ledger is the row-by-row record behind every aggregate: each trade's entry, exit, direction, size, fees, and P&L. When a metric surprises you, this is where you go. Three trades carrying the entire return? A win rate built on one outlier? The aggregates hide it; the ledger shows it. Judge a strategy on the distribution of trades, never on three of them.

If expectancy, win rate, and average R as aggregate metrics are unfamiliar, the Trading 101 strategy lesson defines them before you start reading them off a panel.

Reflection

Pick a past run and find its single best trade in the ledger. Remove it mentally β€” does the strategy still have an edge, or was that one trade carrying everything?